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Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|